Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
FC Ahal beat Al Ansar SC Beirut 2-1 in AFC Challenge League.
Match decisions & VAR
44'Penalty awardedFC AhalDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FC Ahal won 2-1.
Story
FC Ahal vs Al Ansar SC Beirut: the story of the match
45' — FC Ahal took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0.
63' — Al Ansar SC Beirut equalised: 1-1. 77' — FC Ahal went back in front: 2-1. FC Ahal won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC AhalDrawAl Ansar SC Beirut
Pre-match model estimate: FC Ahal 18%, draw 21%, Al Ansar SC Beirut 61%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Ahal win in 18% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Al Ansar SC Beirut win 61%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 0-1 (10%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
