One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Ethiopian Insurance FCKick-off0-0Defence Force SC
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Ethiopian Insurance FC win in 29% of the simulated matches, 32% end level and Defence Force SC win 39%. Average goals 1.9; the most likely score is 0-0 (16%); both teams score in 36%. About 8.8 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 25%.
Previous meetings and form
Head to head
1Ethiopian Insurance FC1Draws3Defence Force SC
Goals: 3 - 5 · last 5 meetings
Premier LeagueEthiopian Insurance FC1 - 3Defence Force SC
Premier LeagueDefence Force SC1 - 0Ethiopian Insurance FC
Premier LeagueEthiopian Insurance FC0 - 1Defence Force SC
Premier LeagueEthiopian Insurance FC2 - 0Defence Force SC
Premier LeagueDefence Force SC0 - 0Ethiopian Insurance FC
Goals scored per match: 0.7Goals conceded per match: 0.9
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Defence Force SC won 1-3.
Story
Ethiopian Insurance FC vs Defence Force SC: the story of the match
10' — Defence Force SC took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
57' — Defence Force SC extended the lead: 0-2. 90' — Defence Force SC extended the lead: 0-3. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Ethiopian Insurance FC pulled one back: 1-3. It came in the closing minutes. Defence Force SC won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Ethiopian Insurance FCDrawDefence Force SC
Pre-match model estimate: Ethiopian Insurance FC 29%, draw 32%, Defence Force SC 39%.
Defence Force SC beat Ethiopian Insurance FC3-1 in the Premier League. It was 0-1 at half-time. The match was played on Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (matchday 4).
Key moments
Defence Force SC took the lead on 10 minutes. Half-time: 0-1, Defence Force SC in front.
Defence Force SC extended their lead to 2-0 on 57 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, Defence Force SC extended their lead to 3-0. Late on, in the 90th minute, Ethiopian Insurance FC pulled one back to make it 1-3. Ethiopian Insurance FC had a goal ruled out. Ethiopian Insurance FC had a goal ruled out.
What the numbers say
Ethiopian Insurance FC committed 12 fouls to Defence Force SC's 10, and the offside count read 8-2.
Before the match
Ethiopian Insurance FC came into the match with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches. Ethiopian Insurance FC were held 1-1 by Hawassa City in their latest outing. Before kick-off, Defence Force SC's last 5 matches had brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Last time out, Defence Force SC beat Gamo Chencha 1-0 away. In 4 previous meetings, Ethiopian Insurance FC have won 1, Defence Force SC 2, and 1 has been drawn. The last meeting, in 2026 in the Premier League, went 1-0 to Defence Force SC. Those 4 games produced 4 goals, an average of 1.0 per match.
Coming up
Defence Force SC's next match is away to Saint George SC on 12 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
