Estonia vs Bulgaria kick-off time: 16/11/2026 17:00
UEFA Nations League, League A, Gr. 1
Match info
Last 5 matches
More- EstoniaDWDDWUnbeaten in 9 matches
- BulgariaWLDLD
Recent meetings
More- UEFA Nations LeagueBulgaria0 - 0Estonia
UEFA Nations League, League A, Gr. 1
More| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | -5 | 3 |
Line-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Estonia and Bulgaria meet on in UEFA Nations League, League A, Gr. 1.
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Scoreno
- Statisticsno
- Line-upsyes
- Pitch animationno
- Pressure datano
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Estonia (45%).
Chances to win
Model estimate
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Preview
Estonia vs Bulgaria: preview
Estonia have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches. Estonia are unbeaten in 9 matches. 2 of Estonia's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 4. Bulgaria have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches. 5 of Bulgaria's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 4.
Our pre-match model estimate: Estonia 45%, draw 29%, Bulgaria 26%.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsModel simulation (20,000 runs): Estonia win in 45% of the simulated matches, 29% end level and Bulgaria win 26%. Average goals 2.1; the most likely score is 1-0 (16%); both teams score in 40%.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
