Dynamo Dresden vs Greuther Furth: the story of the match
Dynamo Dresden started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 31' — Dynamo Dresden took the lead: 1-0. Robert Wagner scored it. 41' — Dynamo Dresden extended the lead: 2-0. Ben Bobzien scored it. Half time: 2-0, with Greuther Furth applying more of the pressure.
55' — Dynamo Dresden extended the lead: 3-0. Vincent Vermeij scored it. 62' — Hendry Blank of Greuther Furth was sent off. After 61' the momentum swung to Dynamo Dresden. Dynamo Dresden won 3-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Dynamo DresdenDrawGreuther Furth
Pre-match model estimate: Dynamo Dresden 51%, draw 23%, Greuther Furth 26%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Dynamo DresdenGreuther Furth
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min530
Last 15 min5351
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Dynamo Dresden win in 51% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Greuther Furth win 26%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 10.7 corners on average. About 4.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 14%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Dynamo Dresden, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Dynamo Dresden took the lead on 31 minutes thanks to Robert Wagner. Dynamo Dresden extended their lead to 2-0 on 41 minutes thanks to Ben Bobzien. Half-time: 2-0, Dynamo Dresden in front.
Dynamo Dresden extended their lead to 3-0 on 55 minutes thanks to Vincent Vermeij. Dynamo Dresden took over after the 61st minute, pinning Greuther Furth back. Greuther Furth were a man down from the 62nd minute, when Hendry Blank was sent off for a second yellow card.
What the numbers say
Dynamo Dresden won 3 corners, Greuther Furth 9. Greuther Furth produced 117 dangerous attacks to Dynamo Dresden's 93.
What it means
The result lifts Dynamo Dresden to 14th with 11 points, up from 18th. Greuther Furth stay 9th on 12 points.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
2. Bundesliga
