CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna: the story of the match
20' — Spartak Varna took the lead: 0-1. A. Ivanov scored it. 23' — CSKA 1948 Sofia equalised: 1-1. Elias Franco scored it. 28' — CSKA 1948 Sofia completed the turnaround: 2-1. B. Benamar scored it. Half time: 2-1.
48' — CSKA 1948 Sofia extended the lead: 3-1. A. Iliev scored from the penalty spot. 59' — CSKA 1948 Sofia extended the lead: 4-1. G. Rusev scored it. 67' — CSKA 1948 Sofia extended the lead: 5-1. H. Cuellar scored it. 82' — CSKA 1948 Sofia extended the lead: 6-1. A. Iliev scored it. CSKA 1948 Sofia won 6-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CSKA 1948 SofiaDrawSpartak Varna
Pre-match model estimate: CSKA 1948 Sofia 70%, draw 18%, Spartak Varna 12%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CSKA 1948 Sofia win in 70% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and Spartak Varna win 12%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 2-0 (11%); both teams score in 51%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Spartak Varna took the lead in the 20th minute: A. Ivanov, set up by J. Lopes. CSKA 1948 Sofia drew level at 1-1 on 23 minutes thanks to Elias Franco. CSKA 1948 Sofia completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 28 minutes thanks to B. Benamar. CSKA 1948 Sofia led 2-1 at the break.
After a review on 48 minutes, CSKA 1948 Sofia were given a penalty. CSKA 1948 Sofia extended their lead to 3-1 on 48 minutes thanks to A. Iliev from the penalty spot. CSKA 1948 Sofia extended their lead to 4-1 in the 59th minute: G. Rusev, set up by J. Meyer. A CSKA 1948 Sofia goal stood after a VAR check in the 61st minute. CSKA 1948 Sofia extended their lead to 5-1 in the 67th minute: H. Cuellar, set up by J. Meyer.
VAR disallowed a CSKA 1948 Sofia goal on 80 minutes. A. Iliev made it 6-1 for CSKA 1948 Sofia after 82 minutes. VAR checked and confirmed the CSKA 1948 Sofia goal on 83 minutes.
Match statistics
CSKA 1948 Sofia had 7 shots (3 on target) to Spartak Varna's 3 (2). Dangerous attacks: 279 for CSKA 1948 Sofia, 146 for Spartak Varna.
What the result means
CSKA 1948 Sofia sit 4th on 29 points in the standings. In the table, Spartak Varna are 7th with 16 points. CSKA 1948 Sofia have now scored in 6 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
