Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Chelsea LFC (Wom) beat Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) 3-1 in Women's Super League.
Venue: VBS Community Stadium.
In our records Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) and Chelsea LFC (Wom) have met 7 times: Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) won 0, 0 ended level and Chelsea LFC (Wom) won 7.
Their latest meeting (): Chelsea LFC (Wom) 5-0 Crystal Palace LFC (Wom).
Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) vs Chelsea LFC (Wom): the story of the match
20' — Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) took the lead: 1-0. Molly Bartrip scored it. Half time: 1-0.
51' — Chelsea LFC (Wom) equalised: 1-1. Melvine Malard scored it. 75' — Chelsea LFC (Wom) completed the turnaround: 1-2. Melvine Malard scored it. 90' — Chelsea LFC (Wom) extended the lead: 1-3. Sandy Baltimore scored from the penalty spot. It came in the closing minutes. Chelsea LFC (Wom) won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Crystal Palace LFC (Wom)DrawChelsea LFC (Wom)
Pre-match model estimate: Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) 1%, draw 6%, Chelsea LFC (Wom) 93%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) win in 1% of the simulated matches, 6% end level and Chelsea LFC (Wom) win 93%. Average goals 3.9; the most likely score is 0-3 (15%); both teams score in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) – Chelsea LFC (Wom) match report
Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) took the lead on 20 minutes thanks to Molly Bartrip, set up by Fuka Tsunoda. It was Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) 1-0 Chelsea LFC (Wom) at half-time.
Chelsea LFC (Wom) drew level at 1-1 in the 51st minute: Melvine Malard, set up by Katie McCabe. Chelsea LFC (Wom) completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 75 minutes thanks to Melvine Malard, set up by Sandy Baltimore. Chelsea LFC (Wom) had a goal ruled out in the 84th minute. Sandy Baltimore made it 3-1 for Chelsea LFC (Wom) after 90 minutes. Chelsea LFC (Wom) had a goal ruled out.
What the numbers say
On target it was 2-10, from 3 and 14 attempts respectively. Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) won 2 corners, Chelsea LFC (Wom) 13. Chelsea LFC (Wom) produced 83 dangerous attacks to Crystal Palace LFC (Wom)'s 14.
What the result means
Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) drop from 11th to 13th on 6 points. The result lifts Chelsea LFC (Wom) to 1st with 19 points, up from 2nd. Crystal Palace LFC (Wom) have now gone 4 matches without a win. Chelsea LFC (Wom) extend their unbeaten run to 12 matches.
Women's Super League
