Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Changchun Yatai won 4-1.
Story
Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Hakka: the story of the match
12' — Changchun Yatai took the lead: 1-0. 31' — Changchun Yatai extended the lead: 2-0. Half time: 2-0.
69' — Meizhou Hakka pulled one back: 2-1. 86' — Changchun Yatai extended the lead: 3-1. It came in the closing minutes. 88' — Changchun Yatai extended the lead: 4-1. It came in the closing minutes. Changchun Yatai won 4-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Changchun Yatai win in 62% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Meizhou Hakka win 18%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-0 (10%); both teams score in 53%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Changchun Yatai took the lead on 12 minutes. Changchun Yatai extended their lead to 2-0 on 31 minutes. The officials disallowed a Changchun Yatai goal on 34 minutes. Changchun Yatai led 2-0 at the break.
Meizhou Hakka pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 69 minutes. Changchun Yatai had a goal ruled out in the 73rd minute. Late on, in the 86th minute, Changchun Yatai extended their lead to 3-1. Just 2 minutes later (88') Changchun Yatai extended their lead to 4-1.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 3-6.
What it means
A 5-game wait for victory is over for Changchun Yatai. The wait for a win goes on for Meizhou Hakka: 5 matches now.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
