CD Tapatio vs Atletico Morelia: the story of the match
28' — Atletico Morelia took the lead: 0-1. Diego de Buen scored it. Half time: 0-1.
64' — Atletico Morelia extended the lead: 0-2. Mauro Nathanael Nambo Hernández scored it. 76' — Luis Ledesma of CD Tapatio was sent off. 87' — CD Tapatio pulled one back: 1-2. Vladimir Moragregra scored from the penalty spot. It came in the closing minutes. 88' — Alejandro Andrade of Atletico Morelia was sent off. Atletico Morelia won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD TapatioDrawAtletico Morelia
Pre-match model estimate: CD Tapatio 33%, draw 23%, Atletico Morelia 44%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Tapatio win in 33% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Atletico Morelia win 44%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 63%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Atletico Morelia took the lead on 28 minutes thanks to Diego de Buen. Atletico Morelia led 1-0 at the break.
Mauro Nathanael Nambo Hernández made it 2-0 for Atletico Morelia after 64 minutes. Luis Ledesma saw a straight red card in the 76th minute, leaving CD Tapatio short-handed. Vladimir Moragregra reduced the deficit for CD Tapatio to 1-2 after 87 minutes. Atletico Morelia had a player sent off on 88 minutes: Alejandro Andrade.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 10-19, 6-7 on target. CD Tapatio won 6 corners, Atletico Morelia 6. CD Tapatio produced 72 dangerous attacks to Atletico Morelia's 47.
The bigger picture
CD Tapatio drop from 9th to 11th on 17 points. Atletico Morelia stay 3rd on 26 points. Atletico Morelia end a run of 4 matches without a win. It is Atletico Morelia's first win against CD Tapatio since 2023.
What’s next
CD Tapatio's next match is away to Piratas FC de Veracruz on 1 November. Atletico Morelia visit Alacranes de Durango next, on 1 November in the Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura
