Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
CD Illescas beat UD Almansa 1-0 in Tercera Federacion, Group 12.
Match decisions & VAR
No verified referee decision in this match.
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: CD Illescas won 1-0.
Story
CD Illescas vs UD Almansa: the story of the match
CD Illescas started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with CD Illescas applying more of the pressure.
80' — CD Illescas took the lead: 1-0. After 76' the momentum swung to UD Almansa. CD Illescas won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD IllescasDrawUD Almansa
Pre-match model estimate: CD Illescas 55%, draw 24%, UD Almansa 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
CD IllescasUD Almansa
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2246
Last 15 min2846
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Illescas win in 55% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and UD Almansa win 21%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-0 (13%); both teams score in 49%. About 8.9 corners on average. About 5.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CD Illescas started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Half-time: 0-0 between CD Illescas and UD Almansa.
From the 76th minute the pressure shifted towards UD Almansa. CD Illescas took the lead on 80 minutes.
Match statistics
On target it was 2-5, from 7 and 8 attempts respectively. Corners finished 3-3. CD Illescas' goalkeeper made 5 saves. Dangerous attacks: 90 for CD Illescas, 52 for UD Almansa.
What the result means
3 defeats in a row come to an end for CD Illescas. The wait for a win goes on for UD Almansa: 4 matches now.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Tercera Federacion, Group 12
