Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Aberystwyth Town beat Carmarthen Town 4-0 in FAW Championship.
Venue: Richmond Park.
In our records Carmarthen Town and Aberystwyth Town have met 10 times: Carmarthen Town won 2, 5 ended level and Aberystwyth Town won 3.
Their latest meeting (): Aberystwyth Town 1-1 Carmarthen Town.
Match details
Venue
Richmond Park, Carmarthen
Match decisions & VAR
No verified referee decision in this match.
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Aberystwyth Town won 0-4.
Story
Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town: the story of the match
6' — Aberystwyth Town took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
58' — Aberystwyth Town extended the lead: 0-2. 66' — Aberystwyth Town extended the lead: 0-3. 81' — Aberystwyth Town extended the lead: 0-4. Aberystwyth Town won 0-4.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Carmarthen TownDrawAberystwyth Town
Pre-match model estimate: Carmarthen Town 21%, draw 20%, Aberystwyth Town 59%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Carmarthen Town win in 21% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Aberystwyth Town win 59%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 1-2 (9%); both teams score in 63%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Aberystwyth Town took the lead on 6 minutes. It was Carmarthen Town 0-1 Aberystwyth Town at half-time.
Aberystwyth Town extended their lead to 2-0 on 58 minutes. Aberystwyth Town extended their lead to 3-0 on 66 minutes. Aberystwyth Town extended their lead to 4-0 on 81 minutes.
Match statistics
Corners finished 2-6.
The bigger picture
Carmarthen Town move on to 15 points. The result takes Aberystwyth Town to 22 points. Carmarthen Town have lost 4 in a row. Aberystwyth Town beat Carmarthen Town for the first time since 2019.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
FAW Championship
