46' — Brentford U21 completed the turnaround: 2-3. 67' — Bournemouth U21 equalised: 3-3. 90' — Brentford U21 completed the turnaround: 3-4. It came in the closing minutes. Brentford U21 won 3-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Bournemouth U21 win in 50% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Brentford U21 win 30%. Average goals 4.1; the most likely score is 2-1 (8%); both teams score in 75%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Bournemouth U21 took the lead on 29 minutes. Just 2 minutes later (31') Brentford U21 drew level at 1-1. Brentford U21 completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 35 minutes. Bournemouth U21 drew level at 2-2 on 45 minutes. Half-time: 2-2 between Bournemouth U21 and Brentford U21.
Just 1 minutes later (46') Brentford U21 completed the turnaround at 3-2. Bournemouth U21 drew level at 3-3 on 67 minutes. Bournemouth U21 had a goal ruled out in the 76th minute. The officials disallowed a Bournemouth U21 goal on 90 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, Brentford U21 completed the turnaround at 4-3.
Match statistics
Bournemouth U21 had 17 shots (11 on target) to Brentford U21's 8 (7). Corners finished 6-1.
The bigger picture
Brentford U21 ended Bournemouth U21's unbeaten run of 3 matches. Brentford U21 have now scored in 6 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
