Blackpool vs Aston Villa U21: the story of the match
Blackpool started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 29' — Aston Villa U21 took the lead: 0-1. Fletcher Boyd scored it. 42' — Blackpool equalised: 1-1. Zachary Ashworth scored it. Half time: 1-1, with Blackpool applying more of the pressure.
71' — Blackpool completed the turnaround: 2-1. Jerry Yates scored from the penalty spot. 79' — Blackpool extended the lead: 3-1. Jordan Brown scored it. 90' — Aston Villa U21 pulled one back: 3-2. It came in the closing minutes. After 91' the momentum swung to Aston Villa U21. Blackpool won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BlackpoolDrawAston Villa U21
Pre-match model estimate: Blackpool 75%, draw 14%, Aston Villa U21 11%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
BlackpoolAston Villa U21
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min088
Last 15 min458
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Blackpool win in 75% of the simulated matches, 14% end level and Aston Villa U21 win 11%. Average goals 3.9; the most likely score is 2-0 (9%); both teams score in 60%. About 10.4 corners on average. About 3.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Blackpool – Aston Villa U21 match report
Updated:
Aston Villa U21 let a lead slip and lost 3-2 to Blackpool at Bloomfield Road. 823 spectators were at Bloomfield Road.
How the match unfolded
The early pressure came from Blackpool, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Aston Villa U21 took the lead in the 29th minute: Fletcher Boyd. Blackpool drew level at 1-1 in the 42nd minute: Zachary Ashworth. It was Blackpool 1-1 Aston Villa U21 at half-time; Blackpool had the better of the pressure.
Blackpool completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 71 minutes thanks to Jerry Yates from the penalty spot. Jordan Brown made it 3-1 for Blackpool after 79 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, Aston Villa U21 pulled one back to make it 3-2. Aston Villa U21 took over after the 91st minute, pinning Blackpool back.
Match statistics
On target it was 9-3, from 11 and 5 attempts respectively. Blackpool won 8 corners, Aston Villa U21 2. Blackpool produced 52 dangerous attacks to Aston Villa U21's 26.
The bigger picture
Aston Villa U21 have now scored in 6 consecutive matches.
