Barracas Central vs AA Estudiantes: the story of the match
44' — AA Estudiantes took the lead: 0-1. Ibrahim Hesar scored it. Half time: 0-1.
66' — Barracas Central equalised: 1-1. Enzo Taborda scored it. 67' — Gonzalo Maffini of AA Estudiantes was sent off. 74' — Barracas Central completed the turnaround: 2-1. Rafael Barrios scored it. Barracas Central won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Barracas CentralDrawAA Estudiantes
Pre-match model estimate: Barracas Central 56%, draw 28%, AA Estudiantes 16%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Barracas Central win in 56% of the simulated matches, 28% end level and AA Estudiantes win 16%. Average goals 2.0; the most likely score is 1-0 (19%); both teams score in 33%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 12%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AA Estudiantes took the lead in the 44th minute: Ibrahim Hesar. AA Estudiantes led 1-0 at the break.
Barracas Central drew level at 1-1 on 66 minutes thanks to Enzo Taborda, set up by Tomás Porra. AA Estudiantes were a man down from the 67th minute, when Gonzalo Maffini was sent off. Barracas Central completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 74 minutes thanks to Rafael Barrios, set up by Gastón Campi. Barracas Central had a goal ruled out in the 95th minute.
The statistics
Barracas Central won 12 corners, AA Estudiantes 2. Barracas Central produced 78 dangerous attacks to AA Estudiantes' 25.
The bigger picture
The result takes Barracas Central to 24 points. AA Estudiantes move on to 5 points. Barracas Central extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches.
Primera LPF, Clausura
