Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished ·
Last update:
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 1-1.
Story
AZ Picerno vs SSC Bari: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
59' — AZ Picerno took the lead: 1-0. M. Kanoute scored it. 69' — SSC Bari equalised: 1-1. F. Bianchi scored it. After 46' the momentum swung to SSC Bari. After 76' the momentum swung to AZ Picerno. After 91' the momentum swung to SSC Bari. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AZ PicernoDrawSSC Bari
Pre-match model estimate: AZ Picerno 25%, draw 27%, SSC Bari 48%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AZ PicernoSSC Bari
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min5588
Last 15 min6969
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AZ Picerno win in 25% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and SSC Bari win 48%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 0-1 (14%); both teams score in 46%. About 9.2 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards SSC Bari. The officials disallowed a SSC Bari goal on 49 minutes. AZ Picerno took the lead on 59 minutes thanks to M. Kanoute, set up by L. Abreu. SSC Bari drew level at 1-1 on 69 minutes thanks to F. Bianchi, set up by K. Butic. AZ Picerno took over after the 76th minute, pinning SSC Bari back.
Match statistics
AZ Picerno had 4 shots (2 on target) to SSC Bari's 7 (6). Corners finished 6-3. AZ Picerno's goalkeeper made 6 saves. Dangerous attacks: 207 for SSC Bari, 174 for AZ Picerno.
What the result means
The wait for a win goes on for SSC Bari: 5 matches now. Across 8 meetings in our records: 5 wins for SSC Bari and 3 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie C, Group B
