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Aquila 1902 Montevarchi beat Grassina 1-0 in Serie D – Group E.
No verified referee decision in this match.
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Result awaiting verification.
Full time: Aquila 1902 Montevarchi won 1-0.
Half time: 1-0.
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi won 1-0.
Model estimate
Pre-match model estimate: Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 65%, draw 21%, Grassina 14%.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
What the pre-match simulation said
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Aquila 1902 Montevarchi win in 65% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Grassina win 14%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-0 (12%); both teams score in 48%.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Updated:
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi beat Grassina 1-0 without conceding.
By half: 1-0 and 0-0.
Grassina have now gone 8 matches without a win.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
