39' — Orenburg took the lead: 0-1. Dmitri Rybchinsky scored it. Half time: 0-1.
Orenburg won 0-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Akhmat GroznyDrawOrenburg
Pre-match model estimate: Akhmat Grozny 47%, draw 26%, Orenburg 27%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Akhmat Grozny win in 47% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Orenburg win 27%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 53%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Orenburg took the lead on 39 minutes thanks to Dmitri Rybchinsky. It was Akhmat Grozny 0-1 Orenburg at half-time.
What the numbers say
Akhmat Grozny had 17 shots (5 on target) to Orenburg's 6 (4). Corners finished 5-2. Orenburg's goalkeeper made 5 saves. Dangerous attacks: 180 for Akhmat Grozny, 106 for Orenburg.
The bigger picture
Akhmat Grozny slip to 14th (11 points), having started the day 13th. Orenburg climb from 8th to 6th on 16 points. The wait for a win goes on for Akhmat Grozny: 5 matches now. Orenburg are now unbeaten in 5 matches.
Next fixtures
Akhmat Grozny visit Dynamo Moscow next, on 31 October in the Premier League. Next up for Orenburg: home to FC Rodina Moscow on Wednesday 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League
