AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
48' — AFC Wimbledon took the lead: 1-0. Callum Maycock scored it. 72' — Arsenal U21 equalised: 1-1. Evan Mooney scored it. 88' — Arsenal U21 completed the turnaround: 1-2. Emerson Nwaneri scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to AFC Wimbledon. After 61' the momentum swung to Arsenal U21. Arsenal U21 won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AFC WimbledonDrawArsenal U21
Pre-match model estimate: AFC Wimbledon 61%, draw 20%, Arsenal U21 19%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AFC WimbledonArsenal U21
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3958
Last 15 min5671
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AFC Wimbledon win in 61% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Arsenal U21 win 19%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 62%. About 10.5 corners on average. About 3.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between AFC Wimbledon and Arsenal U21.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards AFC Wimbledon. Callum Maycock opened the scoring for AFC Wimbledon after 48 minutes. Arsenal U21 took over after the 61st minute, pinning AFC Wimbledon back. Arsenal U21 drew level at 1-1 in the 72nd minute: Evan Mooney. Arsenal U21 completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 88th minute: Emerson Nwaneri.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 10-15, 7-4 on target. Corners finished 6-4.
What the result means
The wait for a win goes on for AFC Wimbledon: 8 matches now. A 3-game wait for victory is over for Arsenal U21.
What’s next
Next up for AFC Wimbledon: away at Stockport County on Saturday 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
