This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): ADT Tarma win in 36% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Sporting Cristal win 40%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Sporting Cristal took the lead on 45 minutes thanks to Herná Barcos. Half-time: 0-1, Sporting Cristal in front.
Late on, in the 90th minute, ADT Tarma drew level at 1-1.
Match statistics
ADT Tarma won 5 corners, Sporting Cristal 6.
The bigger picture
ADT Tarma drop from 15th to 16th on 12 points. Sporting Cristal slip to 2nd (32 points), having started the day 1st. ADT Tarma extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches. Sporting Cristal have now scored in 9 consecutive matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 2 wins for ADT Tarma, 6 wins for Sporting Cristal and 3 draws.
What’s next
Next up for Sporting Cristal: home to Cienciano del Cusco on Saturday 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Primera Division, Clausura
