ADT Tarma vs Sporting Cristal: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 45' — Sporting Cristal took the lead: 0-1. Herná Barcos scored it. Half time: 0-1, with ADT Tarma applying more of the pressure.
90' — ADT Tarma equalised: 1-1. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Sporting Cristal. The match ended 1-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
ADT TarmaSporting Cristal
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3131
Last 15 min3449
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): ADT Tarma win in 36% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Sporting Cristal win 40%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Sporting Cristal took the lead on 45 minutes thanks to Herná Barcos. Half-time: 0-1, Sporting Cristal in front.
Sporting Cristal took over after the 46th minute, pinning ADT Tarma back. Late on, in the 90th minute, ADT Tarma drew level at 1-1.
Match statistics
ADT Tarma won 5 corners, Sporting Cristal 6.
The bigger picture
The result takes ADT Tarma to 12 points. Sporting Cristal move on to 32 points. ADT Tarma extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches. Sporting Cristal have now scored in 9 consecutive matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 2 wins for ADT Tarma, 6 wins for Sporting Cristal and 3 draws.
What’s next
Next up for Sporting Cristal: home to Cienciano del Cusco on Saturday 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Primera Division, Clausura
