52' — Al Ittihad Jeddah took the lead: 0-1. Houssem Aouar scored it. 87' — Abha equalised: 1-1. Faisal Al Sibyani scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 1-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AbhaDrawAl Ittihad Jeddah
Pre-match model estimate: Abha 14%, draw 19%, Al Ittihad Jeddah 67%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Abha win in 14% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and Al Ittihad Jeddah win 67%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 0-2 (11%); both teams score in 53%. About 10.3 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 14%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Neither Abha nor Al Ittihad Jeddah could find a winner in a 1-1 draw. The half-time score was 0-0.
Key moments
Al Ittihad Jeddah had a goal ruled out in the 27th minute. The first half ended 0-0.
Al Ittihad Jeddah took the lead on 52 minutes thanks to Houssem Aouar. VAR disallowed a Al Ittihad Jeddah goal on 83 minutes. Abha drew level at 1-1 in the 87th minute: Faisal Al Sibyani.
Match statistics
Abha won 4 corners, Al Ittihad Jeddah 7.
What it means
Abha end a run of 3 straight defeats. The result ends Al Ittihad Jeddah's run of 3 straight wins. Across 11 meetings in our records: 4 wins for Abha, 6 wins for Al Ittihad Jeddah and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
