VenezuelaFootballSeason 2026Primera Division, Clausura season simulation
Model estimate Deportivo Tachira FC — 82% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Tachira FC | 6 | 9.2 | 82% |
| Caracas FC | 3 | 5.8 | 6% |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 3 | 5.2 | 12% |
| Monagas SC | 0 | 2.6 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Tachira FC | 82 | 12 | 6 | |
| Caracas FC | 6 | 54 | 23 | 17 |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 12 | 22 | 57 | 8 |
| Monagas SC | 11 | 14 | 75 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 4 remaining matches · data version 18d3kh.