FootballSeason 26/27V-League 2 season simulation
Model estimate Thai Nguyen FC — 42% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thai Nguyen FC | 16 | 52.3 | 42% |
| Hung Yen FC | 14 | 50.5 | 30% |
| Becamex Ho Chi Minh City FC | 16 | 50.2 | 25% |
| Aurora Saigon United | 13 | 41.5 | 2% |
| PVF-CAND | 10 | 41 | 1% |
| Ho Chi Minh City FC | 13 | 38.1 | <1% |
| Van Hien University | 11 | 34.6 | <1% |
| Khatoco Khanh Hoa FC | 12 | 34.3 | <1% |
| Quy Nhon United FC | 6 | 30.3 | 0% |
| Thep Can Tho | 8 | 29.3 | 0% |
| Hue FC | 5 | 27.9 | 0% |
| Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 2 | 24.4 | 0% |
| Dong Tam Long An | 4 | 23.9 | 0% |
| Lam Dong FC | 4 | 19.3 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thai Nguyen FC | 42 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 2 | |||||||||
| Hung Yen FC | 30 | 29 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| Becamex Ho Chi Minh City FC | 25 | 29 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||
| Aurora Saigon United | 2 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| PVF-CAND | 1 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Ho Chi Minh City FC | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| Van Hien University | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Khatoco Khanh Hoa FC | 1 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Quy Nhon United FC | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| Thep Can Tho | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Hue FC | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 6 | ||||
| Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 24 | 17 | ||||||
| Dong Tam Long An | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 25 | 16 | ||||||
| Lam Dong FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 56 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 133 remaining matches · data version 4jean5. 133 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.