FootballSeason 26/27V-League 1 season simulation
Model estimate Cong An Ha Noi FC — 52% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cong An Ha Noi FC | 14 | 50.3 | 52% |
| Nam Dinh FC | 16 | 47.6 | 30% |
| Ninh Binh FC | 13 | 44.4 | 13% |
| Song Lam Nghe An | 13 | 38.9 | 2% |
| Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC | 10 | 36.7 | 1% |
| Ha Noi FC | 9 | 36 | 1% |
| Bac Ninh FC | 8 | 35.3 | 1% |
| Hong Linh Ha Tinh | 11 | 33.7 | <1% |
| Hai Phong | 10 | 32.9 | <1% |
| SHB Da Nang | 9 | 32.4 | <1% |
| Thanh Hoa FC | 9 | 29.4 | <1% |
| The Cong Viettel FC | 5 | 28.5 | <1% |
| Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 6 | 27.3 | 0% |
| Truong Tuoi Dong Nai FC | 4 | 25.2 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cong An Ha Noi FC | 52 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||
| Nam Dinh FC | 30 | 32 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Ninh Binh FC | 13 | 22 | 27 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Song Lam Nghe An | 2 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC | 3 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Ha Noi FC | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bac Ninh FC | 2 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Hong Linh Ha Tinh | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Hai Phong | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | |
| SHB Da Nang | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 4 | ||
| Thanh Hoa FC | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 11 | |||
| The Cong Viettel FC | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 15 | |||
| Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 22 | ||||
| Truong Tuoi Dong Nai FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 21 | 38 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 133 remaining matches · data version 9o4hc3. 133 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.