TürkiyeFootballSeason 26/27Super Lig season simulation
Model estimate Besiktas — 27% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | 18 | 64.8 | 27% | 50% | 18% | 15% |
| Galatasaray | 22 | 64.5 | 24% | 47% | 18% | 15% |
| Fenerbahce | 16 | 64.2 | 24% | 45% | 19% | 15% |
| Amedspor SK | 20 | 61.4 | 13% | 28% | 18% | 19% |
| Trabzonspor | 19 | 60.7 | 11% | 25% | 17% | 19% |
| Kasimpasa | 16 | 52 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Corum FK | 13 | 51.1 | <1% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Kocaelispor | 15 | 46.9 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Goztepe SK | 12 | 45.7 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Alanyaspor | 12 | 45.8 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 11 | 45.4 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Erzurumspor FK | 14 | 40.8 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Caykur Rizespor | 10 | 38.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
| Genclerbirligi SK | 8 | 36.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Gaziantep FK | 8 | 35.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% |
| Konyaspor | 8 | 34.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% |
| Samsunspor | 4 | 31.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Eyupspor | 3 | 24.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeaguexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | 27 | 22 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Galatasaray | 24 | 22 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Fenerbahce | 24 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Amedspor SK | 13 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Trabzonspor | 11 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Kasimpasa | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Corum FK | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Kocaelispor | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Goztepe SK | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Alanyaspor | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||||||
| Caykur Rizespor | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 2 | ||||||
| Genclerbirligi SK | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 4 | ||||||
| Gaziantep FK | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 4 | |||||||
| Konyaspor | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 6 | |||||||
| Samsunspor | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 14 | |||||||||
| Eyupspor | 2 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 68 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 225 remaining matches · data version pf7o7t. 216 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.