FootballSeason 26/27Primera Federacion, Group 2 season simulation
Model estimate UD Logrones — 43% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| UD Logrones | 20 | 73.4 | 43% |
| CD Lugo | 22 | 72.6 | 36% |
| CD Extremadura | 13 | 68 | 16% |
| Real Union de Irun | 13 | 60.9 | 3% |
| CD Mirandes | 14 | 58.6 | 1% |
| Racing Ferrol | 16 | 55.8 | <1% |
| Cultural Leonesa | 12 | 53.5 | <1% |
| Zamora CF | 12 | 52.6 | <1% |
| SD Ponferradina | 13 | 52 | <1% |
| Merida AD | 13 | 51.2 | <1% |
| CP Cacereno | 15 | 50.2 | <1% |
| Athletic Bilbao B | 12 | 50.1 | <1% |
| CD Coria | 9 | 49 | <1% |
| Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 10 | 49 | <1% |
| Real Aviles CF | 11 | 47.1 | <1% |
| Barakaldo CF | 10 | 45.5 | 0% |
| Pontevedra CF | 14 | 45.8 | <1% |
| Deportivo Fabril | 8 | 42 | 0% |
| UD Ourense | 5 | 34.9 | 0% |
| Arenas Club de Getxo | 5 | 25.1 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Logrones | 43 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| CD Lugo | 36 | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| CD Extremadura | 16 | 25 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Real Union de Irun | 3 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| CD Mirandes | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Racing Ferrol | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Cultural Leonesa | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Zamora CF | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| SD Ponferradina | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| Merida AD | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| CP Cacereno | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Athletic Bilbao B | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| CD Coria | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Real Aviles CF | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Barakaldo CF | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 5 | |||||
| Pontevedra CF | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 5 | |||||
| Deportivo Fabril | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 14 | 2 | |||||||
| UD Ourense | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 51 | 11 | ||||||||||||
| Arenas Club de Getxo | 2 | 11 | 86 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 290 remaining matches · data version 18nwwl. 290 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.