SpainFootballSeason 26/27LaLiga 2 season simulation
Model estimate CD Castellon — 45% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Castellon | 26 | 83.2 | 45% | 71% | 28% | 0% |
| UD Almeria | 25 | 82 | 35% | 65% | 33% | 0% |
| Girona FC | 21 | 74.6 | 7% | 22% | 62% | 0% |
| Mallorca | 19 | 74.5 | 6% | 20% | 64% | 0% |
| Eibar | 22 | 72.8 | 5% | 14% | 61% | 0% |
| Real Oviedo | 18 | 66.7 | 1% | 3% | 38% | <1% |
| Burgos CF | 20 | 65 | <1% | 2% | 29% | <1% |
| Granada | 20 | 64.7 | <1% | 2% | 28% | <1% |
| CE Sabadell FC | 17 | 64.1 | <1% | 1% | 25% | <1% |
| Sporting Gijon | 19 | 62.5 | <1% | 1% | 18% | <1% |
| CD Tenerife | 14 | 57.8 | 0% | <1% | 6% | 1% |
| Cordoba CF | 15 | 54.4 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% |
| UD Las Palmas | 14 | 54.1 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 4% |
| CD Eldense | 14 | 52.9 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| Leganes | 12 | 50.1 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 12% |
| Celta de Vigo B | 12 | 48 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 19% |
| Real Valladolid | 12 | 47 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 22% |
| Cadiz CF | 10 | 46.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 24% |
| FC Andorra | 10 | 42.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 48% |
| Real Sociedad B | 8 | 37.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 80% |
| Albacete Balompie | 4 | 35.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 86% |
| AD Ceuta FC | 5 | 32.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 93% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Castellon | 45 | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| UD Almeria | 35 | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Girona FC | 7 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Mallorca | 6 | 13 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Eibar | 5 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Real Oviedo | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Burgos CF | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Granada | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| CE Sabadell FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Sporting Gijon | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| CD Tenerife | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| Cordoba CF | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| UD Las Palmas | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| CD Eldense | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Leganes | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| Celta de Vigo B | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |||||||||
| Real Valladolid | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Cadiz CF | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| FC Andorra | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 5 | |||||||||||
| Real Sociedad B | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 23 | 24 | 18 | ||||||||||||||
| Albacete Balompie | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 28 | 28 | |||||||||||||||
| AD Ceuta FC | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 46 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 341 remaining matches · data version e08jr2. 330 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.