FootballSeason 26/27Serie B season simulation
Model estimate Palermo — 64% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 27 | 74.4 | 64% | 84% | 16% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Modena | 23 | 67.9 | 19% | 50% | 48% | 0% | 0% |
| Hellas Verona | 16 | 62.6 | 6% | 20% | 70% | <1% | <1% |
| Ascoli FC | 20 | 62.5 | 5% | 19% | 71% | <1% | 0% |
| US Cremonese | 15 | 60 | 3% | 11% | 72% | <1% | <1% |
| AC Pisa | 16 | 57.6 | 1% | 6% | 65% | 1% | <1% |
| Benevento Calcio | 16 | 57 | 1% | 5% | 63% | 1% | <1% |
| Mantova FC | 19 | 55 | 1% | 2% | 52% | 2% | 1% |
| US Avellino | 16 | 54.4 | <1% | 2% | 50% | 2% | 1% |
| SS Juve Stabia | 12 | 50 | <1% | <1% | 27% | 6% | 3% |
| Padova | 15 | 48.9 | <1% | <1% | 20% | 8% | 5% |
| FC Sudtirol | 15 | 48.3 | <1% | <1% | 18% | 9% | 6% |
| Cesena FC | 15 | 48.2 | <1% | <1% | 16% | 9% | 6% |
| Virtus Entella | 10 | 42.2 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 22% | 24% |
| LR Vicenza Virtus | 9 | 40.2 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 23% | 37% |
| Catanzaro | 6 | 39.7 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 23% | 40% |
| SS Arezzo | 11 | 39.6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 24% | 42% |
| Sampdoria | 11 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 24% | 44% |
| Carrarese | 10 | 38.6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 23% | 45% |
| Empoli FC | 9 | 38.5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 23% | 46% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 64 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| FC Modena | 19 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Hellas Verona | 6 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| Ascoli FC | 5 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| US Cremonese | 3 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| AC Pisa | 1 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Benevento Calcio | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Mantova FC | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| US Avellino | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| SS Juve Stabia | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Padova | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| FC Sudtirol | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Cesena FC | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Virtus Entella | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |||||||
| LR Vicenza Virtus | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | ||||||||
| Catanzaro | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 14 | ||||||||
| SS Arezzo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 15 | ||||||||
| Sampdoria | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |||||||||
| Carrarese | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |||||||||
| Empoli FC | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 18 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 270 remaining matches · data version e4l7zm. 270 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.