FootballSeason 26/27Serie A season simulation
Model estimate Inter Milan — 56% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Milan | 28 | 83 | 56% | 97% | 2% | <1% |
| AS Roma | 27 | 78.5 | 25% | 91% | 8% | 1% |
| FC Como | 23 | 75.5 | 11% | 80% | 16% | 2% |
| Lazio | 29 | 72.6 | 6% | 64% | 28% | 5% |
| AC Milan | 24 | 67.9 | 1% | 34% | 41% | 13% |
| Juventus | 18 | 64.5 | <1% | 17% | 40% | 20% |
| Frosinone Calcio | 20 | 62.7 | <1% | 12% | 32% | 21% |
| SSC Napoli | 15 | 58.9 | <1% | 4% | 19% | 18% |
| Bologna | 17 | 55 | <1% | 1% | 8% | 10% |
| Atalanta | 14 | 51.5 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 5% |
| Fiorentina | 9 | 47.7 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Cagliari | 16 | 47.9 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Genoa | 13 | 43.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Torino | 14 | 41.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Sassuolo | 8 | 40 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Venezia | 6 | 34.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Lecce | 10 | 34.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 8 | 33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AC Monza | 7 | 30.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Udinese | 5 | 29.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeaguexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Milan | 56 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| AS Roma | 25 | 32 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| FC Como | 11 | 22 | 27 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Lazio | 6 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| AC Milan | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Juventus | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Frosinone Calcio | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||
| SSC Napoli | 3 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 3 | |||||||||||
| Bologna | 2 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Atalanta | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Fiorentina | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Cagliari | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Genoa | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Torino | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||
| Sassuolo | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||
| Venezia | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 11 | ||||||||||
| Lecce | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 11 | |||||||||||
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 14 | |||||||||||
| AC Monza | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 30 | ||||||||||||
| Udinese | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 23 | 31 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 270 remaining matches · data version 1vzmxk. 270 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.