ScotlandFootballSeason 26/27Scottish Premiership season simulation
Model estimate Celtic FC — 73% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Conference League | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic FC | 27 | 50.8 | 73% | 98% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Glasgow Rangers | 23 | 47.2 | 26% | 89% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC | 19 | 38.9 | 1% | 12% | 82% | <1% | 0% |
| FC Dundee | 14 | 30 | <1% | <1% | 31% | 2% | <1% |
| Falkirk FC | 12 | 29.3 | 0% | <1% | 27% | 2% | <1% |
| Dundee United | 15 | 29 | 0% | <1% | 21% | 3% | 1% |
| St Mirren FC | 13 | 27.1 | 0% | <1% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
| FC Aberdeen | 11 | 25.9 | 0% | <1% | 8% | 9% | 3% |
| St. Johnstone FC | 12 | 24.9 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 14% | 5% |
| Hibernian Edinburgh FC | 7 | 23.2 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 19% | 10% |
| FC Motherwell | 8 | 22.5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 25% | 13% |
| FC Kilmarnock | 8 | 17.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 18% | 65% |
TitleChampions LeagueConference LeagueRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic FC | 73 | 26 | 2 | |||||||||
| Glasgow Rangers | 26 | 63 | 10 | |||||||||
| Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 11 | 71 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| FC Dundee | 6 | 25 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Falkirk FC | 5 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| Dundee United | 3 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |||
| St Mirren FC | 1 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 2 | ||
| FC Aberdeen | 1 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 3 | ||
| St. Johnstone FC | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 5 | |||
| Hibernian Edinburgh FC | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 10 | |||
| FC Motherwell | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 13 | |||
| FC Kilmarnock | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 65 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 72 remaining matches · data version 4wzb48. 63 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.