FootballSeason 26/27Primera Divisio season simulation
Model estimate FC Santa Coloma — 86% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Santa Coloma | 22 | 44.3 | 86% |
| IC d'Escaldes | 16 | 38.8 | 12% |
| AC d'Escaldes | 15 | 34.3 | 2% |
| CF Esperanca | 14 | 28.3 | <1% |
| Ranger's FC | 8 | 24.2 | 0% |
| FC Ordino | 12 | 21.8 | 0% |
| Penya Encarnada | 9 | 20 | 0% |
| Casa de Portugal | 8 | 18 | 0% |
| Sporting Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 12.5 | 0% |
| CE Carroi | 1 | 7.1 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Santa Coloma | 86 | 12 | 2 | |||||||
| IC d'Escaldes | 12 | 71 | 16 | 1 | ||||||
| AC d'Escaldes | 2 | 16 | 68 | 13 | 2 | |||||
| CF Esperanca | 1 | 12 | 59 | 19 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| Ranger's FC | 2 | 17 | 42 | 23 | 11 | 4 | ||||
| FC Ordino | 6 | 20 | 30 | 26 | 15 | 2 | ||||
| Penya Encarnada | 3 | 12 | 26 | 31 | 24 | 5 | ||||
| Casa de Portugal | 5 | 13 | 27 | 42 | 11 | |||||
| Sporting Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 4 | 13 | 68 | 14 | |||||
| CE Carroi | 1 | 13 | 86 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 50 remaining matches · data version 1ke6ot. 50 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.