FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Lion City Sailors FC — 81% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lion City Sailors FC | 13 | 34.8 | 81% | 99% |
| Tampines Rovers | 13 | 30.7 | 18% | 89% |
| Geylang International FC | 14 | 24 | 1% | 8% |
| FC Jurong | 7 | 22.2 | <1% | 3% |
| Balestier Khalsa FC | 7 | 16.8 | 0% | <1% |
| Tanjong Pagar United | 7 | 12.4 | 0% | 0% |
| Young Lions FC | 3 | 8.7 | 0% | 0% |
| Hougang United FC | 1 | 8.2 | 0% | 0% |
TitleChampions LeaguexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lion City Sailors FC | 81 | 18 | 1 | |||||
| Tampines Rovers | 18 | 71 | 9 | 2 | ||||
| Geylang International FC | 8 | 52 | 35 | 4 | ||||
| FC Jurong | 3 | 34 | 50 | 11 | 1 | |||
| Balestier Khalsa FC | 3 | 12 | 66 | 15 | 3 | |||
| Tanjong Pagar United | 1 | 14 | 53 | 23 | 9 | |||
| Young Lions FC | 2 | 17 | 35 | 46 | ||||
| Hougang United FC | 2 | 14 | 38 | 45 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 33 remaining matches · data version 148dg8. 33 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.