FootballSeason 26/27Botola 1 season simulation
Model estimate FAR Rabat — 30% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Promotion | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAR Rabat | 11 | 51.3 | 30% | 50% | 13% | <1% |
| Raja CA Casablanca | 12 | 50.3 | 23% | 41% | 15% | <1% |
| Kawkab AC Marrakech | 16 | 47.4 | 10% | 22% | 12% | 1% |
| RS Berkane | 8 | 46.9 | 11% | 22% | 12% | 2% |
| CODM Meknes | 14 | 46.7 | 9% | 21% | 12% | 2% |
| MAS Maghreb Fes | 11 | 46.7 | 9% | 20% | 12% | 2% |
| Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 42.2 | 2% | 6% | 6% | 8% |
| Wydad AC Casablanca | 11 | 41.7 | 2% | 5% | 5% | 9% |
| Wydad Temara | 10 | 41.3 | 2% | 5% | 5% | 9% |
| DHJ Difaa Hassani Jadidi | 8 | 39.4 | 1% | 3% | 3% | 18% |
| UTS Rabat | 8 | 39.2 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 17% |
| HUSA Hassania Agadir | 9 | 38.2 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 22% |
| FUS Rabat | 8 | 33.7 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 50% |
| US Amal Tiznit | 7 | 29.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 78% |
| CR Khemis Zemamra | 2 | 26.1 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 90% |
| MAT Moghreb Tetouan | 3 | 25.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 94% |
TitleChampions LeaguePromotionRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAR Rabat | 30 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Raja CA Casablanca | 23 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Kawkab AC Marrakech | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| RS Berkane | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| CODM Meknes | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| MAS Maghreb Fes | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Ittihad Tanger | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| Wydad AC Casablanca | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Wydad Temara | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | ||
| DHJ Difaa Hassani Jadidi | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| UTS Rabat | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| HUSA Hassania Agadir | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| FUS Rabat | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 4 | ||||
| US Amal Tiznit | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 23 | 15 | |||||||
| CR Khemis Zemamra | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 35 | |||||||||
| MAT Moghreb Tetouan | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 43 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 185 remaining matches · data version 1l9gbn. 185 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.