LithuaniaFootballSeason 20261 Lyga season simulation
Model estimate FK Minija Kretinga — 57% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Minija Kretinga | 74 | 75.1 | 57% |
| FK Babrungas Plunge | 74 | 75.6 | 43% |
| BE1 NFA Kaunas | 59 | 59 | 0% |
| FK Zalgiris B | 53 | 53 | 0% |
| FK Tauras Taurage | 51 | 51 | 0% |
| BFA Vilnius | 50 | 50 | 0% |
| DFK Dainava | 48 | 48 | 0% |
| FC Neptunas Klaipeda | 45 | 45 | 0% |
| FK Atmosfera Mazeikiai | 41 | 41 | 0% |
| FK Jonava | 32 | 32 | 0% |
| FK Garliava | 30 | 30 | 0% |
| FK Kauno Zalgiris B | 29 | 29 | 0% |
| FK Transinvest B | 29 | 29 | 0% |
| FC Hegelmann B | 28 | 28 | 0% |
| FA Siauliai B | 18 | 18 | 0% |
| FK Ekranas Panevezys | 18 | 18 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Minija Kretinga | 57 | 43 | ||||||||||||||
| FK Babrungas Plunge | 43 | 57 | ||||||||||||||
| BE1 NFA Kaunas | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Zalgiris B | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Tauras Taurage | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| BFA Vilnius | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| DFK Dainava | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FC Neptunas Klaipeda | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Atmosfera Mazeikiai | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Jonava | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Garliava | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Kauno Zalgiris B | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Transinvest B | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FC Hegelmann B | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FA Siauliai B | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| FK Ekranas Panevezys | 100 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 1 remaining matches · data version h6apyf.