FootballSeason 26/27

Ligue 1 season simulation

Model estimate Paris Saint-Germain — 98% title chance

Updated Monday, 9 November 2026 05:27

Chances

Team	Pts	xPts	Title	Champions League	Next round	Europa League	Next round	Relegation play-off	Relegation
Paris Saint-Germain	23	77.7	98%	100%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Lille OSC	21	58.3	1%	46%	15%	12%	9%	<1%	0%
Olympique Lyonnais	17	56.9	1%	39%	15%	12%	10%	0%	0%
Olympique de Marseille	18	55.9	<1%	34%	14%	12%	10%	<1%	<1%
Paris FC	20	54.6	<1%	24%	14%	12%	12%	<1%	0%
AS Monaco	16	54.4	<1%	25%	13%	13%	12%	<1%	0%
Stade Rennais	16	50.5	<1%	9%	7%	9%	10%	<1%	<1%
Stade Brestois	15	49.2	<1%	7%	6%	8%	9%	<1%	<1%
OGC Nice	17	49.5	<1%	7%	6%	8%	9%	<1%	<1%
Lens	13	48.1	<1%	5%	5%	6%	8%	<1%	<1%
Lorient	15	45.9	<1%	2%	2%	4%	5%	1%	<1%
Toulouse	13	43.8	0%	1%	2%	2%	3%	2%	1%
Strasbourg Alsace	10	43	0%	1%	1%	2%	3%	3%	2%
AJ Auxerre	10	34.5	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17%	20%
Le Mans	8	32.7	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	20%	27%
ES Troyes	8	31.8	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	21%	34%
Le Havre	2	29	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	19%	52%
Angers SCO	8	27.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	16%	65%

TitleChampions LeagueNext roundEuropa LeagueNext roundRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points

Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.

Final position probabilities

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
Paris Saint-Germain	98	2
Lille OSC		26	19	15	12	9	6	4	3	2	1
Olympique Lyonnais		21	18	15	12	10	8	6	4	3	2
Olympique de Marseille		17	16	14	12	10	9	7	5	4	2	1
Paris FC		11	13	14	12	12	10	9	7	5	3	2	1
AS Monaco		11	13	13	13	12	10	8	7	6	4	2	1
Stade Rennais		4	6	7	9	10	11	11	11	10	8	7	4	2
Stade Brestois		3	5	6	8	9	10	11	11	11	10	8	5	2
OGC Nice		2	4	6	8	9	11	11	12	11	10	7	6	2
Lens		2	3	5	6	8	9	11	11	12	11	9	7	3	1
Lorient			1	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	14	14	11	6	2
Toulouse				2	2	3	5	7	8	11	14	15	16	9	5	2
Strasbourg Alsace				1	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	17	17	10	5	3	1
AJ Auxerre									1	2	3	6	11	19	21	17	12	7
Le Mans											2	4	8	17	20	20	16	10
ES Troyes											2	3	7	14	19	21	19	15
Le Havre												2	4	9	14	19	24	27
Angers SCO													2	6	10	16	26	39

Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 216 remaining matches · data version 1rfv56. 216 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.

Table predictorPick the remaining results, see the final table