FootballSeason 26/27Ligue 1 season simulation
Model estimate Esperance Tunis — 49% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esperance Tunis | 16 | 58.1 | 49% |
| US Ben Guerdane | 17 | 56.6 | 37% |
| Stade Tunisien | 13 | 47.6 | 3% |
| PS Sakiet Eddayer | 12 | 47.5 | 4% |
| Club Africain | 13 | 47.3 | 3% |
| CS Sfaxien | 10 | 46.9 | 2% |
| US Monastir | 12 | 45.5 | 2% |
| JS Omrane | 10 | 40 | <1% |
| AS Marsa | 9 | 37.8 | <1% |
| CA Bizertin | 11 | 36.3 | <1% |
| ES Zarzis | 6 | 34.2 | 0% |
| Etoile du Sahel | 8 | 32.8 | <1% |
| CS Hammam-Lif | 5 | 31.1 | 0% |
| Olympique Beja | 3 | 30.7 | 0% |
| ES Metlaoui | 6 | 30.4 | 0% |
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 1 | 19.7 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esperance Tunis | 49 | 29 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| US Ben Guerdane | 37 | 33 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Stade Tunisien | 3 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| PS Sakiet Eddayer | 4 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Club Africain | 3 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| CS Sfaxien | 2 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||
| US Monastir | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| JS Omrane | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| AS Marsa | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| CA Bizertin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| ES Zarzis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 2 | ||||
| Etoile du Sahel | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 3 | |||||
| CS Hammam-Lif | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 4 | ||||||
| Olympique Beja | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 5 | ||||||
| ES Metlaoui | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 5 | ||||||
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 2 | 4 | 12 | 81 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 184 remaining matches · data version 1u7684. 184 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.