FootballSeason 26/27Ligat Ha'al season simulation
Model estimate Maccabi Tel Aviv FC — 67% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv FC | 24 | 59.3 | 67% |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 25 | 55.9 | 26% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 22 | 50.9 | 6% |
| Beitar Jerusalem | 18 | 46.5 | 1% |
| Maccabi Haifa | 18 | 42.5 | <1% |
| Maccabi Netanya | 14 | 36.5 | 0% |
| Hapoel Haifa FC | 12 | 32.7 | 0% |
| Bnei Sakhnin | 13 | 28.6 | 0% |
| Hapoel Jerusalem FC | 9 | 28.5 | 0% |
| Maccabi Petach Tikva | 10 | 27.1 | 0% |
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 7 | 26.4 | 0% |
| Ironi Tiberias FC | 10 | 26.1 | 0% |
| Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim FC | 6 | 21.3 | 0% |
| Hapoel Petach Tikva | 7 | 20.8 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv FC | 67 | 25 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 26 | 48 | 20 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 20 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||
| Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 21 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||
| Maccabi Haifa | 1 | 7 | 23 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
| Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 18 | 38 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Hapoel Haifa FC | 1 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Bnei Sakhnin | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| Hapoel Jerusalem FC | 1 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| Maccabi Petach Tikva | 3 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | |||||
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 3 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 7 | |||||
| Ironi Tiberias FC | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 7 | |||||
| Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim FC | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25 | 37 | |||||||
| Hapoel Petach Tikva | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 39 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 112 remaining matches · data version 1warcq. 112 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.