ItalyFootballSeason 26/27Serie A season simulation
Model estimate FC Como — 32% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Como | 20 | 77.3 | 32% | 87% | 10% | 2% |
| Inter Milan | 22 | 77 | 31% | 85% | 12% | 2% |
| AS Roma | 21 | 75.3 | 22% | 79% | 16% | 3% |
| Lazio | 25 | 71 | 8% | 57% | 29% | 8% |
| AC Milan | 18 | 68.3 | 5% | 41% | 34% | 13% |
| Juventus | 14 | 65.3 | 1% | 24% | 35% | 18% |
| Frosinone Calcio | 14 | 63.3 | 1% | 16% | 30% | 19% |
| SSC Napoli | 11 | 60.5 | <1% | 9% | 22% | 18% |
| Atalanta | 10 | 55.5 | <1% | 2% | 9% | 11% |
| Bologna | 8 | 48.8 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| Sassuolo | 8 | 45 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% |
| Fiorentina | 4 | 44.9 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Torino | 13 | 44.8 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Cagliari | 13 | 44.5 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Lecce | 9 | 38.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Genoa | 7 | 37.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| AC Monza | 7 | 36.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Udinese | 4 | 33.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Venezia | 3 | 33.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 4 | 29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeaguexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Como | 32 | 25 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Inter Milan | 31 | 23 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| AS Roma | 22 | 23 | 21 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Lazio | 8 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||
| AC Milan | 5 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Juventus | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Frosinone Calcio | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||
| SSC Napoli | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Atalanta | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Bologna | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Sassuolo | 2 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| Fiorentina | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Torino | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Cagliari | 2 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Lecce | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 4 | |||||||||
| Genoa | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | |||||||||
| AC Monza | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 9 | |||||||||
| Udinese | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 16 | ||||||||||
| Venezia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 18 | ||||||||||
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 44 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 297 remaining matches · data version 8j2hdz. 280 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.