IndonesiaFootballSeason 26/27Super League season simulation
Model estimate Persija Jakarta — 70% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Persija Jakarta | 18 | 70.9 | 70% |
| Persib Bandung | 13 | 62.9 | 15% |
| Borneo FC Samarinda | 9 | 60.5 | 8% |
| Dewa United FC | 14 | 56.7 | 3% |
| Bali United FC | 13 | 55.3 | 2% |
| Persebaya Surabaya | 12 | 54.2 | 1% |
| Persita Tangerang | 12 | 48.9 | <1% |
| Java United FC | 9 | 48.3 | <1% |
| Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC | 11 | 46.8 | <1% |
| Arema FC | 9 | 46.3 | <1% |
| Persik Kediri | 10 | 41.5 | <1% |
| Madura United FC | 13 | 40.5 | 0% |
| PSM Makassar | 9 | 40.2 | <1% |
| PSS Sleman | 4 | 38.8 | 0% |
| Garuda Yaksa FC | 5 | 37 | 0% |
| PSIM Yogyakarta | 2 | 32.1 | 0% |
| Isenmulang Kalteng FC | 5 | 31 | 0% |
| Persijap Jepara | 1 | 25.4 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persija Jakarta | 70 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Persib Bandung | 15 | 32 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Borneo FC Samarinda | 8 | 22 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Dewa United FC | 3 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Bali United FC | 2 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Persebaya Surabaya | 1 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Persita Tangerang | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Java United FC | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Arema FC | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Persik Kediri | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | |||||
| Madura United FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 4 | |||||
| PSM Makassar | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| PSS Sleman | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||||
| Garuda Yaksa FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 4 | ||||||
| PSIM Yogyakarta | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 22 | 22 | 14 | ||||||||
| Isenmulang Kalteng FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 29 | 18 | |||||||||
| Persijap Jepara | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 59 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 244 remaining matches · data version 10ziv2. 235 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.