IndiaFootballSeason 26/27IFL season simulation
Model estimate Shillong Lajong FC — 50% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shillong Lajong FC | 7 | 38.5 | 50% |
| Nagaland United | 3 | 34.6 | 21% |
| Dempo SC | 6 | 34.5 | 18% |
| Sreenidi Deccan FC | 4 | 29.1 | 4% |
| FC Bengaluru United | 3 | 28.4 | 3% |
| Gokulam Kerala | 6 | 27 | 2% |
| Real Kashmir FC | 1 | 24.9 | 1% |
| Chanmari FC | 1 | 24.4 | 1% |
| Mohammedan SC Kolkata | 0 | 24 | 1% |
| Samaleswari SC | 0 | 21.2 | <1% |
| Rajasthan United FC | 0 | 17.8 | <1% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shillong Lajong FC | 50 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| Nagaland United | 21 | 25 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Dempo SC | 18 | 24 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Sreenidi Deccan FC | 4 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| FC Bengaluru United | 3 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Gokulam Kerala | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 |
| Real Kashmir FC | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 7 | |
| Chanmari FC | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 9 | |
| Mohammedan SC Kolkata | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 9 | |
| Samaleswari SC | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 21 | ||
| Rajasthan United FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 |
Model estimate from 20,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 99 remaining matches · data version 1dr8nr. 95 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.