FootballSeason 26/27HNL season simulation
Model estimate HNK Hajduk Split — 54% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 29 | 37.5 | 54% | 44% | 1% | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 25 | 36.9 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 0% |
| NK Varazdin | 19 | 27.1 | <1% | 1% | 55% | 0% |
| HNK Rijeka | 18 | 27.2 | <1% | 2% | 53% | 0% |
| NK Istra 1961 | 19 | 26.7 | <1% | 1% | 52% | 0% |
| NK Osijek | 20 | 25.3 | <1% | <1% | 30% | 0% |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 16 | 22.2 | 0% | 0% | 5% | <1% |
| NK Rudes | 16 | 20.6 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 16.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 8% |
| HNK Gorica | 7 | 11.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 91% |
TitleEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 54 | 44 | ||||||||
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 45 | 51 | 3 | |||||||
| NK Varazdin | 29 | 26 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| HNK Rijeka | 2 | 26 | 27 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| NK Istra 1961 | 1 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 2 | |||
| NK Osijek | 13 | 17 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 3 | ||||
| NK Slaven Belupo | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 38 | 24 | 8 | |||
| NK Rudes | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 50 | 14 | ||||
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 5 | 16 | 70 | 8 | ||||||
| HNK Gorica | 1 | 8 | 91 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 26 remaining matches · data version 12qusk. 26 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.