GreeceFootballSeason 26/27Super League 2 season simulation
Model estimate GE Marko — 95% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Marko | 22 | 67.4 | 95% |
| AEL Larissa 1964 | 13 | 51.6 | 2% |
| Athens Kallithea FC | 17 | 50.7 | 1% |
| GSS Panionios | 14 | 47.1 | <1% |
| Niki Volos FC | 11 | 46.5 | <1% |
| Panserraikos | 14 | 45.9 | <1% |
| APO Ellas Syros | 10 | 44.9 | <1% |
| Panthrakikos FC | 10 | 39.3 | <1% |
| Anagennisi Karditsa FC | 11 | 36.5 | <1% |
| PAOK FC B | 8 | 35 | 0% |
| Nestos Chrysoupoli FC | 8 | 34.5 | 0% |
| Asteras Tripolis B | 9 | 33 | 0% |
| Pyrgos AFC | 8 | 32.1 | 0% |
| Olympiacos Piraeus B | 6 | 30.6 | <1% |
| Apollon Kalamarias FC | 8 | 30.3 | 0% |
| APS Zakynthos | 3 | 21.6 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE Marko | 95 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| AEL Larissa 1964 | 2 | 35 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Athens Kallithea FC | 1 | 25 | 23 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| GSS Panionios | 11 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Niki Volos FC | 9 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Panserraikos | 8 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| APO Ellas Syros | 6 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Panthrakikos FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Anagennisi Karditsa FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| PAOK FC B | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| Nestos Chrysoupoli FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| Asteras Tripolis B | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 3 | |||||
| Pyrgos AFC | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 4 | |||||
| Olympiacos Piraeus B | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 8 | ||||||
| Apollon Kalamarias FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 8 | ||||||
| APS Zakynthos | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 72 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 176 remaining matches · data version cyc58f. 168 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.