GermanyFootballSeason 26/27Bundesliga, Women season simulation
Model estimate Bayern Munich (Wom) — 90% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (Wom) | 24 | 66.5 | 90% | 0% |
| VfL Wolfsburg (Wom) | 21 | 57.3 | 10% | 0% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (Wom) | 17 | 48.3 | <1% | 0% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Wom) | 13 | 43.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 1.FC Koln (Wom) | 12 | 40.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Werder Bremen (Wom) | 13 | 37.8 | <1% | <1% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (Wom) | 9 | 34.9 | 0% | 1% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin (Wom) | 10 | 33.9 | 0% | 1% |
| Freiburg (Wom) | 10 | 33.8 | 0% | 1% |
| RB Leipzig (Wom) | 10 | 31.5 | 0% | 2% |
| Hamburger SV (Wom) | 6 | 25.5 | 0% | 16% |
| VfB Stuttgart (Wom) | 8 | 22.2 | 0% | 42% |
| 1. FC Nurnberg (Wom) | 5 | 21.5 | 0% | 47% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 (Wom) | 0 | 14.5 | 0% | 91% |
TitleRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (Wom) | 90 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| VfL Wolfsburg (Wom) | 10 | 77 | 11 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Eintracht Frankfurt (Wom) | 11 | 54 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Wom) | 2 | 18 | 32 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| 1.FC Koln (Wom) | 9 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Werder Bremen (Wom) | 4 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||||
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (Wom) | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 1. FC Union Berlin (Wom) | 3 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 2 | |||||
| Freiburg (Wom) | 3 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 3 | |||||
| RB Leipzig (Wom) | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Hamburger SV (Wom) | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 22 | 13 | 3 | |||||
| VfB Stuttgart (Wom) | 1 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 32 | 10 | |||||||
| 1. FC Nurnberg (Wom) | 2 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 35 | 12 | ||||||||
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 (Wom) | 2 | 6 | 16 | 75 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 127 remaining matches · data version qhas47. 126 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.