EnglandFootballSeason 26/27English League Championship season simulation
Model estimate West Ham United — 73% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 22 | 93.4 | 73% | 90% | 10% | 0% |
| Southampton | 20 | 83.7 | 13% | 45% | 52% | 0% |
| Middlesbrough | 25 | 82.2 | 9% | 34% | 62% | 0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 21 | 75.9 | 2% | 9% | 71% | <1% |
| Birmingham City | 20 | 75.3 | 2% | 9% | 70% | 0% |
| Swansea City | 23 | 73.3 | 1% | 5% | 64% | <1% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 21 | 72.4 | 1% | 4% | 61% | 0% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 20 | 69.2 | <1% | 2% | 47% | <1% |
| Stoke City | 20 | 67.9 | <1% | 1% | 39% | <1% |
| Sheffield United | 16 | 65.2 | <1% | <1% | 27% | <1% |
| Portsmouth | 18 | 63.8 | <1% | <1% | 21% | <1% |
| Millwall | 15 | 63.2 | 0% | <1% | 19% | <1% |
| Blackburn Rovers | 18 | 63.1 | <1% | <1% | 18% | <1% |
| Wrexham FC | 14 | 60.8 | 0% | <1% | 12% | 1% |
| Norwich City | 12 | 59.9 | 0% | <1% | 10% | 1% |
| Cardiff City | 14 | 58.6 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 2% |
| Bristol City | 15 | 56.7 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 3% |
| Lincoln City | 15 | 56.2 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 4% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 54.4 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 6% |
| Burnley | 8 | 47.5 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 27% |
| Charlton Athletic | 14 | 47.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 27% |
| Derby County | 7 | 43.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 52% |
| Watford | 11 | 39.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 78% |
| Preston North End | 5 | 31.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 97% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 73 | 18 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Southampton | 13 | 32 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Middlesbrough | 9 | 25 | 23 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Birmingham City | 2 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Swansea City | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| West Bromwich Albion | 3 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Queens Park Rangers | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Stoke City | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Sheffield United | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Portsmouth | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Millwall | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Blackburn Rovers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Wrexham FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||||||
| Norwich City | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Cardiff City | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Bristol City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||
| Lincoln City | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Bolton Wanderers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||
| Burnley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Charlton Athletic | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 8 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Derby County | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 20 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| Watford | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 40 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||
| Preston North End | 2 | 6 | 18 | 73 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 408 remaining matches · data version d7qj1x. 384 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.