IcelandFootballSeason 2026Efsta deild, Championship Round season simulation
Model estimate KR Reykjavik — 63% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| KR Reykjavik | 12 | 20.8 | 63% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 11 | 19.2 | 31% |
| IA Akranes | 8 | 15.1 | 5% |
| Breidablik UBK Kopavogur | 6 | 11.9 | <1% |
| Keflavik | 2 | 8.2 | <1% |
| Fram Reykjavik | 2 | 7.6 | <1% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KR Reykjavik | 63 | 29 | 7 | |||
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 31 | 50 | 16 | 3 | ||
| IA Akranes | 5 | 17 | 52 | 19 | 5 | |
| Breidablik UBK Kopavogur | 4 | 19 | 46 | 22 | 8 | |
| Keflavik | 4 | 16 | 38 | 41 | ||
| Fram Reykjavik | 3 | 14 | 33 | 49 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 15 remaining matches · data version 1p21wx. 15 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.