CyprusFootballSeason 26/27First Division season simulation
Model estimate Omonia Nicosia — 31% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 12 | 51.9 | 31% |
| AEK Larnaca | 16 | 51.1 | 24% |
| Pafos FC | 12 | 50.6 | 22% |
| Apollon Limassol | 15 | 49.1 | 15% |
| APOEL | 11 | 46.7 | 7% |
| Aris Limassol FC | 12 | 42.6 | 1% |
| AEL Limassol | 15 | 34.8 | <1% |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta FC | 5 | 29.9 | <1% |
| Olympiakos Nicosia | 6 | 27.2 | 0% |
| Anorthosis | 6 | 27.1 | 0% |
| Omonia 29M | 8 | 24.7 | 0% |
| Omonia Aradippou | 6 | 22 | 0% |
| Krasava Ypsonas | 4 | 20.9 | 0% |
| Karmiotissa Polemidion | 3 | 19.5 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 31 | 25 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 3 | ||||||||
| AEK Larnaca | 24 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ||||||||
| Pafos FC | 22 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 6 | ||||||||
| Apollon Limassol | 15 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||||||
| APOEL | 7 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 17 | 4 | |||||||
| Aris Limassol FC | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 41 | 12 | 4 | ||||||
| AEL Limassol | 3 | 12 | 42 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Nea Salamina Famagusta FC | 4 | 17 | 26 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Olympiakos Nicosia | 2 | 9 | 17 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |||||
| Anorthosis | 1 | 7 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 4 | |||||
| Omonia 29M | 3 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 8 | ||||||
| Omonia Aradippou | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 18 | ||||||
| Krasava Ypsonas | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 24 | 26 | |||||||
| Karmiotissa Polemidion | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 39 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 133 remaining matches · data version 1bh7h0. 126 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.