BelgiumFootballSeason 26/27Challenger Pro League season simulation
Model estimate K Beerschot VA — 98% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| K Beerschot VA | 27 | 66.5 | 98% |
| FCV Dender EH | 20 | 51.4 | 2% |
| KAS Eupen | 18 | 46.3 | <1% |
| KSC Lokeren-Temse | 14 | 44.5 | <1% |
| Patro Eisden Maasmechelen | 15 | 44.1 | <1% |
| KSC Hasselt | 15 | 42.4 | <1% |
| Royal Excelsior Virton | 13 | 39.7 | 0% |
| Royal Francs-Borains | 18 | 39.1 | <1% |
| KAA Gent B | 12 | 36.5 | 0% |
| Jong KRC Genk | 10 | 31.2 | 0% |
| K. Lierse Kempenzonen | 8 | 31.2 | 0% |
| Club NXT | 9 | 29.6 | 0% |
| RSCA Futures | 7 | 27.7 | 0% |
| RFC Liege | 5 | 27.5 | 0% |
| RFC Seraing | 8 | 26.5 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Beerschot VA | 98 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| FCV Dender EH | 2 | 54 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| KAS Eupen | 17 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| KSC Lokeren-Temse | 10 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Patro Eisden Maasmechelen | 8 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| KSC Hasselt | 5 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Royal Excelsior Virton | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Royal Francs-Borains | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||
| KAA Gent B | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Jong KRC Genk | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | ||||
| K. Lierse Kempenzonen | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | ||||
| Club NXT | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | |||||
| RSCA Futures | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 22 | ||||||
| RFC Liege | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 22 | ||||||
| RFC Seraing | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 28 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 140 remaining matches · data version 1al9rs. 140 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.