GermanyFootballSeason 26/27Bundesliga season simulation
Model estimate Bayern Munich — 95% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Next round | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 21 | 80.5 | 95% | 100% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 21 | 65 | 3% | 85% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| RB Leipzig | 18 | 62.1 | 1% | 74% | 13% | 8% | 0% | 0% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 16 | 60.7 | 1% | 64% | 18% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 12 | 56.2 | <1% | 35% | 22% | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| Freiburg | 19 | 55.9 | <1% | 32% | 21% | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| Werder Bremen | 15 | 47.7 | 0% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 1% | <1% |
| SV Elversberg | 13 | 45.9 | 0% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 10 | 43.8 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 12 | 43.2 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Augsburg | 9 | 42.4 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 42.6 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Paderborn 07 | 10 | 38.8 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 8% |
| Hamburger SV | 12 | 37.8 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 11% | 11% |
| 1.FC Koln | 9 | 35.1 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 15% | 21% |
| Borussia Monchengladbach | 4 | 32.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 17% | 40% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 7 | 30.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 17% | 52% |
| Schalke 04 | 6 | 29.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 16% | 57% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueNext roundRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 95 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||
| RB Leipzig | 1 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 17 | 23 | 24 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 12 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Freiburg | 6 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Werder Bremen | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| SV Elversberg | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| Augsburg | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Paderborn 07 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |||||
| Hamburger SV | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 4 | ||||||
| 1.FC Koln | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 8 | |||||||
| Borussia Monchengladbach | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 20 | ||||||||
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 23 | 29 | ||||||||||
| Schalke 04 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 33 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 225 remaining matches · data version 1hnytq. 225 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.