BrazilFootballSeason 2026U20 Campeonato Paulista season simulation
Model estimate Ibrachina FC SP U20 — 100% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos SP U20 | 3 | 4.9 | 64% | 100% |
| CA Juventus SP U20 | 3 | 3 | 4% | 100% |
| Corinthians SP U20 | 3 | 4.9 | 32% | 100% |
| Ferroviária U20 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| AA Portuguesa Santista SP U20 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Portuguesa U20 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| União Suzano U20 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| AA Ponte Preta U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Jabaquara U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| São Bento U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Mirassol U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Itapirense U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| América-SP U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Sertãozinho U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos SP U20 | 64 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| CA Juventus SP U20 | 4 | 32 | 64 | |||||||||||
| Corinthians SP U20 | 32 | 47 | 21 | |||||||||||
| Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 25 | 74 | |||||||||||
| AA Portuguesa Santista SP U20 | 22 | 78 | ||||||||||||
| Portuguesa U20 | 22 | 78 | ||||||||||||
| União Suzano U20 | 22 | 78 | ||||||||||||
| AA Ponte Preta U20 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| Jabaquara U20 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| São Bento U20 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| Mirassol U20 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| Itapirense U20 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| América-SP U20 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| Sertãozinho U20 | 100 |
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrachina FC SP U20 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Oeste U20 | 6 | 6 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Desportivo Brasil SP U20 | 6 | 6 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Bandeirante U20 | 4 | 4 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Sao Paulo FC U20 | 3 | 3.7 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| São Caetano U20 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| XV de Piracicaba U20 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| EC São Bernardo U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Botafogo FC SP U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 81% | 0% |
| Novorizontino U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| União São João U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| EC Santo Andre U20 | 0 | 0.8 | 0% | 19% | 3% |
| Velo Clube U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Aguai U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 97% |
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrachina FC SP U20 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| Oeste U20 | 92 | 8 | ||||||||||||
| Desportivo Brasil SP U20 | 88 | 12 | ||||||||||||
| Bandeirante U20 | 79 | 21 | ||||||||||||
| Sao Paulo FC U20 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 53 | 7 | ||||||||
| São Caetano U20 | 58 | 41 | ||||||||||||
| XV de Piracicaba U20 | 81 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| EC São Bernardo U20 | 81 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| Botafogo FC SP U20 | 81 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| Novorizontino U20 | 81 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| União São João U20 | 81 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| EC Santo Andre U20 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 78 | 3 | |||||||||
| Velo Clube U20 | 81 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| Aguai U20 | 3 | 97 |
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Next round | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino U20 | 6 | 8.5 | 94% | 100% | 0% |
| Água Santa U20 | 6 | 6 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras U20 | 3 | 5.1 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Ituano U20 | 4 | 4 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Guarani SP U20 | 3 | 3.9 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Capivariano FC U20 | 4 | 4.3 | 6% | 100% | 0% |
| AA Flamengo SP U20 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| XV de Jaú U20 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Tanabi SP U20 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Osasco Audax U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Mauá U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Gremio Prudente U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Porto Football U20 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sfera FC U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Referencia U20 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino U20 | 94 | 2 | 4 | ||||||||||||
| Água Santa U20 | 81 | 18 | |||||||||||||
| SE Palmeiras U20 | 9 | 52 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 4 | |||||||||
| Ituano U20 | 6 | 42 | 43 | 8 | |||||||||||
| Guarani SP U20 | 9 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 45 | 1 | |||||||||
| Capivariano FC U20 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 43 | 31 | ||||||||||
| AA Flamengo SP U20 | 5 | 95 | |||||||||||||
| XV de Jaú U20 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Tanabi SP U20 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Osasco Audax U20 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Mauá U20 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Gremio Prudente U20 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Porto Football U20 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Sfera FC U20 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Referencia U20 | 100 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 4 remaining matches · data version feck1k.