BrazilFootballSeason 2026Brasileiro Serie B season simulation
Model estimate Gremio Novorizontino — 65% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio Novorizontino | 64 | 69.7 | 65% | 91% | 10% | 0% |
| EC Juventude RS | 64 | 68.7 | 28% | 77% | 23% | 0% |
| Vila Nova Goiania | 62 | 66.1 | 5% | 22% | 78% | 0% |
| Fortaleza CE | 61 | 64.8 | 2% | 8% | 91% | 0% |
| Criciuma EC | 59 | 63.6 | <1% | 2% | 96% | 0% |
| Clube De Regatas Brasil | 55 | 59.2 | 0% | 0% | 39% | 0% |
| Atletico Goianiense | 54 | 58 | 0% | 0% | 23% | 0% |
| Sport Recife | 54 | 58.1 | 0% | 0% | 28% | 0% |
| Goias EC | 52 | 57 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Operario Ferroviario EC | 51 | 55.2 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Sao Bernardo FC SP | 49 | 53.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| Cuiaba EC | 47 | 50.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Botafogo FC SP | 47 | 50.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Athletic Club MG | 44 | 48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% |
| Nautico Capibaribe | 43 | 47.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Ceara SC | 43 | 46.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Avai FC | 37 | 40.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 96% |
| Londrina EC PR | 32 | 36.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| America MG | 23 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| AA Ponte Preta | 15 | 16.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio Novorizontino | 65 | 26 | 7 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| EC Juventude RS | 28 | 50 | 19 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Vila Nova Goiania | 5 | 16 | 40 | 24 | 13 | |||||||||||||||
| Fortaleza CE | 2 | 6 | 24 | 42 | 22 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| Criciuma EC | 2 | 11 | 25 | 50 | 11 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Clube De Regatas Brasil | 1 | 7 | 31 | 26 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Atletico Goianiense | 1 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 7 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Sport Recife | 4 | 23 | 24 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| Goias EC | 10 | 14 | 19 | 27 | 20 | 9 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Operario Ferroviario EC | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 29 | 23 | 8 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Sao Bernardo FC SP | 2 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Cuiaba EC | 2 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 30 | 16 | 5 | |||||||||||||
| Botafogo FC SP | 1 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 30 | 16 | 6 | |||||||||||||
| Athletic Club MG | 2 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 25 | 20 | ||||||||||||||
| Nautico Capibaribe | 3 | 8 | 19 | 37 | 29 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| Ceara SC | 2 | 6 | 17 | 26 | 47 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Avai FC | 4 | 83 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||
| Londrina EC PR | 12 | 88 | ||||||||||||||||||
| America MG | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||
| AA Ponte Preta | 100 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 30 remaining matches · data version 1n0f1a. 20 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.