AzerbaijanFootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Sabah FK — 59% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FK | 20 | 48.7 | 59% | 40% | 0% |
| Qarabag FK | 18 | 47.2 | 37% | 61% | 0% |
| Neftchi PFK Baku | 18 | 40.7 | 4% | 73% | 0% |
| Zira FK | 15 | 35.3 | <1% | 18% | <1% |
| Turan Tovuz IK | 15 | 31.7 | <1% | 5% | <1% |
| Shamakhi FK | 13 | 29.1 | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| Kapaz PFC | 14 | 27.8 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Sumqayit FK | 8 | 25.7 | 0% | <1% | 4% |
| Imisli FC | 10 | 24.5 | 0% | <1% | 6% |
| Gabala FK | 7 | 19.9 | 0% | 0% | 35% |
| Araz Nakhchivan | 2 | 17 | 0% | 0% | 63% |
| Shafa Baku | 3 | 13.3 | 0% | 0% | 89% |
TitleConference LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FK | 59 | 33 | 7 | |||||||||
| Qarabag FK | 37 | 47 | 14 | 2 | ||||||||
| Neftchi PFK Baku | 4 | 17 | 56 | 16 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| Zira FK | 2 | 15 | 43 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| Turan Tovuz IK | 4 | 19 | 31 | 22 | 14 | 7 | 3 | |||||
| Shamakhi FK | 2 | 10 | 19 | 24 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Kapaz PFC | 5 | 12 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1 | ||||
| Sumqayit FK | 3 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| Imisli FC | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 27 | 15 | 6 | ||||
| Gabala FK | 1 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 27 | 8 | |||||
| Araz Nakhchivan | 1 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 40 | 23 | ||||||
| Shafa Baku | 2 | 8 | 22 | 67 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 80 remaining matches · data version 11kgr6. 74 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.